A political historian known for his record of forecasting US presidential elections has delivered his final assessment of the 2026 midterms, outlining what he believes could happen to control of Congress.
Allan Lichtman, a professor at American University, has become a familiar name in American politics thanks to his '13 Keys to the White House' system, which has been credited with correctly forecasting nine of the last 11 presidential election winners.
With Americans voting on Tuesday, November 3, Lichtman has turned his attention to the battle for the House of Representatives and Senate.
And his assessment suggests President Donald Trump could face a significant change in the political landscape during the second half of his term.
What has Allan Lichtman predicted for the 2026 midterms?
Lichtman believes Democrats have a greater than 90 percent chance of taking control of the House of Representatives.
Speaking to The Times, he explained that the narrow Republican majority means Democrats need only a relatively small number of additional seats to gain control.
He also forecast a Democratic takeover of the Senate, although he acknowledged that the path to a majority there is considerably more difficult.
In his interview with The Times, Lichtman placed the probability of Democrats winning the Senate at 67 percent.
However, in a subsequent video assessment reported on November 2, he increased that estimate to 70 percent.
These percentages represent Lichtman's own judgment rather than independently established probabilities or results from his famous presidential forecasting system.
What does he think the Senate result could look like?
Lichtman has suggested that a 51-49 Democratic majority is a plausible outcome in the Senate.
Republicans entered the election holding 53 seats, while Democrats and independents who caucus with them held 47.
For Democrats to achieve a 51-seat majority, they would need a net gain of four seats.
Lichtman identified Maine, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas as potential opportunities for Democratic gains.
He also discussed Michigan, where Democrat Abdul El-Sayed is facing Republican Mike Rogers, as an important contest for the party's ability to maintain its existing representation.
Other races attracting his attention include Alaska, Kansas, Iowa and South Carolina, although these states have different political histories and electoral circumstances.
His projections remain forecasts, and individual races will ultimately be determined by voters and certified election results.
Why does Lichtman believe Republicans could lose seats?
The historian has pointed to several factors influencing his assessment, particularly President Trump's approval ratings, congressional polling and differences in voter enthusiasm.
According to Lichtman, presidents experiencing similarly low approval ratings have historically seen their parties lose substantial numbers of seats during midterm elections.
He cited a historical average of approximately 40 House seats and six Senate seats lost by the president's party under comparable circumstances.
However, he clarified that this was a historical comparison, not a prediction of the exact number of seats Republicans would lose in 2026.
Lichtman has also highlighted national generic congressional ballot polling, which asks respondents which party they would prefer to control Congress.
In his assessment, the surveys showed a Democratic advantage of approximately seven to 11 percentage points.
He believes that differences in enthusiasm and early voting participation could also influence the outcome.
However, national polling does not automatically translate into congressional seats, particularly because House elections take place in individual districts and Senate elections are decided state by state.
Could Donald Trump face impeachment again?
A change in congressional control could have significant implications for Trump's presidency.
If Democrats gain a majority in the House, they would have greater power to conduct investigations, issue subpoenas and determine which legislation receives consideration.
The House also has the constitutional authority to impeach a president by a simple majority vote.
Trump was impeached twice during his first term, in 2019 and 2021, but was acquitted by the Senate on both occasions.
A future Democratic House majority could potentially consider impeachment proceedings, although no election outcome would automatically trigger such action.
Removing a president from office following impeachment would require a two-thirds majority vote in the Senate to convict.
Even a narrow Democratic Senate majority would therefore not be sufficient on its own to remove a president.
How accurate have Allan Lichtman's predictions been?
Lichtman is best known for developing the 13 Keys to the White House alongside geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok.
The system evaluates a series of political and historical conditions rather than relying exclusively on opinion polls.
It has attracted considerable attention for its record of forecasting presidential elections, although that record has also been the subject of debate.
Most recently, Lichtman predicted that Kamala Harris would win the 2024 presidential election, a forecast that proved incorrect when Donald Trump won.
His interpretation of the 2000 election has also been debated because Al Gore won the popular vote while George W. Bush won the Electoral College.
Importantly, Lichtman's 2026 midterm assessment is not a formal application of the 13 Keys system, which was designed for presidential elections.
His congressional forecasts are instead based on his interpretation of political history, polling and current electoral conditions.
What would a Democratic Congress mean for Trump?
The outcome of the midterms will determine the balance of power in Washington for the remaining two years of Trump's current presidential term.
Republicans currently control both chambers, allowing them to pursue legislation with the support of their congressional majorities.
If Democrats take the House, they could block or amend parts of the administration's legislative agenda and expand congressional oversight.
Control of the Senate would also affect the confirmation of presidential nominees and the passage of legislation.
However, the president would retain executive powers, including responsibilities relating to foreign affairs and the administration of federal agencies.
The practical impact of a divided government would depend on the size of the congressional majorities and the willingness of lawmakers from both parties to negotiate.
When will the midterm election results be known?
Voting takes place on Tuesday, November 3, with all 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats being contested.
Some results may become clear on election night, while closely contested races could take additional time to resolve as ballots are counted.
Election officials will certify results according to the procedures and deadlines in their respective states.
For now, Lichtman's assessment provides one historian's interpretation of the political conditions heading into the election.
Whether his forecasts prove accurate will become clear as voters determine the next composition of Congress.
